It's the 2022 Granite State Guru!

It’s the 2022 Granite State Guru!

Will New Hampshire be hit by a crimson wave on Tuesday? Or will the Democrats’ firewall maintain again the GOP tide?

You possibly can spend the following 48 hours worrying, or you possibly can ask our very personal Granite State Guru!

The Granite State Guru is the aggregated knowledge of greater than a dozen New Hampshire politicians, pundits and marketing campaign professionals, who shared their predictions for Tuesday’s election. Beneath are the averages of their predictions, together with data from confidential conversations concerning the state of New Hampshire’s countryside.

US Senate: Don Bolduc over Senator Maggie Hassan, 49 to 48.2%.

The Granite State Guru has by no means had a prediction so shut. Extra importantly, Republicans who participated have been nearly as prone to predict a Hassan victory as Democrats. The recurring theme of the politicos is that Bolduc remains to be a weak candidate however matches the political second, whereas Hassan is a candidate who has revealed how weak she actually is.

The Guru Says: Maggie’s “No-Present” marketing campaign missed the mark.

Governor: Governor Chris Sununu over State Senator Tom Sherman, 58.3 to 40.7 p.c.

Common settlement on a race which, based on FiveThirtyEight, Sherman had “lower than a one p.c likelihood of successful”. Not a single panelist picked Rye’s physician to win. The query is whether or not he’ll hold Sununu under 60%, which Dan Feltes could not do. And the way huge does Sununu have to get DC Republicans to note him in time for 2024?

Guru says: Sununu ran onerous and had enjoyable. Sherman ran onerous, and it exhibits.

NH-01: Karoline Leavitt vs. Rep. Chris Pappas, 51.2 to 47.8 p.c.

Predictions for this race have been everywhere in the map. Some Republicans are predicting a shock outburst from Leavitt, who received a surprisingly giant victory over Mowers within the main. Others consider the age challenge and Pappas’ Manchester ties may make him more durable to beat – and even retain the seat. Democrats are principally in “cross your fingers and hope for a miracle” mode.

The guru says: Karoline has reached “levitation”, whereas Pappas will sink below the crimson wave.

NH-02: Rep. Annie Kuster on Bob Burns, 52.5 to 46.3 p.c.

Once more, common settlement. The one debate among the many panelists is whether or not the GOP’s drawback is the district or the candidate. Some argue that NH-02 remains to be past the attain of the GOP. Others level to Kuster’s ballot numbers — she remains to be one of many least in style politicians within the state — and say a stronger candidate may take the seat. And whereas not one of the panelists anticipated an upheaval, a number of mentioned they would not be shocked if it occurred.

The guru says: Kuster is a Democrat canary within the Pink Wave coal mine. If she loses, it is a tsunami.

The Government Council: Republicans 4, Democrats 1.

Just one panelist predicted in any other case.

The State Senate: 15 Republicans, 9 Democrats.

Even probably the most staunch Democrat would not anticipate the GOP to lose management of the state Senate. One of the best they might muster is a 14-10 prediction. And probably the most optimistic Republican put the margin at 17-7, including the phrase “watch the Soucy seat.” If the Democratic chief falls, it could ship shockwaves all through the state.

The State Home of Representatives: 237 – 163.

The UVA Crystal Ball could have moved the State Home from ‘seemingly GOP’ to ‘lean GOP’, however none of our panelists purchase the concept such 12 months for Republicans will end in a reversal of the Bed room. On the similar time, they acknowledge that two years in the past Biden received the state by seven and the GOP received each the Home and the Senate. One thing to remember. Watch what number of reasonable Democrats get knocked down by the GOP. A smaller, extra progressive caucus might be dangerous information for the Democratic Social gathering down the street.


Electronic mail your predictions for all the races above to [email protected] earlier than midday on polling day.

In case your picks are, total, extra correct than the guru, you may get a shoutout within the NHJournal e-newsletter and bragging rights via 2024.

#Granite #State #Guru

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.